* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 18 23 30 30 28 21 17 15 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 -1 4 4 1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 111 116 115 97 90 84 72 77 80 106 126 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 137 140 141 140 138 138 135 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 50 53 62 63 65 64 61 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 52 122 151 159 120 0 -54 -67 -64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 45 51 25 14 -4 11 54 36 -10 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 3 6 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1745 1734 1726 1719 1634 1598 1536 1521 1405 1145 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.4 15.8 15.3 15.4 15.6 16.3 18.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 127.6 127.3 126.8 126.3 124.7 123.8 123.1 123.1 122.3 120.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 7 6 4 2 3 8 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 10 11 13 12 18 20 19 22 9 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -21. -19. -19. -18. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##