* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 103 96 89 74 59 43 27 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 109 103 96 89 74 59 43 27 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 103 96 89 76 63 51 41 33 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 13 16 15 4 4 3 4 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 2 0 2 2 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 354 36 60 56 54 73 95 64 22 258 243 229 234 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.1 24.6 23.6 22.5 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 136 129 123 115 110 99 88 85 85 84 83 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 73 67 66 60 58 53 50 43 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 47 47 46 44 42 39 35 31 27 24 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 92 111 126 141 145 123 103 74 44 24 4 15 19 200 MB DIV 99 71 47 69 65 18 -12 9 7 -5 15 13 -7 700-850 TADV 4 -2 -5 -5 -7 -1 4 4 5 10 5 3 -2 LAND (KM) 767 793 799 826 868 973 1096 1261 1348 1340 1335 1271 1244 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.6 25.1 26.8 28.7 30.0 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.3 117.3 118.3 119.3 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.0 131.0 132.6 133.3 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -23. -34. -45. -55. -64. -70. -75. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -22. -26. -31. -33. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -26. -41. -56. -72. -88. -99.-109.-117.-126. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##