* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 79 83 85 87 89 89 83 66 49 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 75 79 83 85 87 89 89 83 66 49 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 77 78 78 77 77 77 72 59 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 9 8 6 8 6 24 49 65 54 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 0 2 6 13 17 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 359 320 301 295 285 119 133 163 228 235 212 200 208 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.7 23.0 20.1 16.9 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 157 151 145 137 133 131 126 98 86 77 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 141 134 128 120 118 118 115 91 80 72 68 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4 -49.0 -48.2 -49.0 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 45 46 46 44 45 47 48 39 43 48 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 29 30 33 33 33 33 37 44 50 43 35 850 MB ENV VOR 120 100 98 96 76 31 -11 24 83 201 230 225 180 200 MB DIV 64 47 43 36 -15 21 25 48 27 89 64 87 88 700-850 TADV 9 8 18 20 10 6 -6 2 -16 -14 -28 -42 -61 LAND (KM) 571 687 800 916 830 752 872 848 797 579 784 1193 1432 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 31.6 33.8 36.2 38.7 41.8 45.4 49.0 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 71.5 71.0 70.7 70.4 69.2 66.6 62.6 57.1 50.6 43.1 36.7 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 12 12 14 18 23 27 31 30 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 35 54 47 32 31 12 8 10 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 5. -1. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 9. 16. 21. 14. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 18. 1. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 9( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)