* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 23 21 20 21 24 26 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 23 21 20 21 24 26 28 29 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 22 28 30 28 30 21 14 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 114 96 94 92 81 81 90 84 114 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 138 139 140 139 138 139 141 130 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 51 54 57 62 63 61 60 55 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 124 149 154 144 117 20 -31 -57 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 49 27 29 7 -3 24 33 21 -4 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 5 4 0 -1 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1734 1731 1731 1718 1695 1695 1663 1681 1604 1379 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.1 17.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 127.1 126.7 126.2 125.6 125.1 124.8 125.1 124.6 123.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 2 0 2 7 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 7 7 8 10 8 9 2 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##