* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 86 82 77 66 53 39 27 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 92 86 82 77 66 53 39 27 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 91 85 79 74 64 55 46 38 32 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 11 9 8 6 3 4 7 10 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 3 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 356 37 64 70 68 89 131 198 210 214 209 240 234 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.8 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.3 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 129 123 118 112 103 91 85 84 84 82 79 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.5 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -49.3 -49.4 -49.7 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 72 69 70 66 61 58 55 47 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 46 46 45 44 43 41 37 33 30 27 24 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 91 102 115 121 119 93 73 35 16 -1 9 0 4 200 MB DIV 70 37 63 59 60 -9 17 1 17 1 24 8 -19 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -3 -5 -4 2 4 2 10 7 4 0 -6 LAND (KM) 769 778 807 858 907 1002 1165 1317 1292 1294 1251 1192 1079 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.7 26.5 28.2 29.8 30.8 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.3 118.3 119.4 120.5 122.9 125.5 127.8 130.0 131.7 132.9 132.9 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 10 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -17. -27. -37. -46. -53. -58. -62. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -25. -30. -34. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -23. -34. -47. -61. -73. -85. -96.-105.-112. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##