* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 77 78 83 86 89 89 84 68 51 35 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 77 78 83 86 89 89 84 68 51 35 V (KT) LGE mod 65 71 75 78 79 79 79 80 79 68 53 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 7 9 3 7 11 17 34 58 81 89 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 4 2 2 -1 9 14 16 5 -1 -10 SHEAR DIR 329 319 276 273 273 141 171 179 238 233 223 215 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.0 25.9 21.2 19.3 16.9 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 154 148 142 134 132 130 119 89 82 75 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 138 132 126 117 119 119 109 82 75 70 67 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -49.9 -49.4 -48.2 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 6 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 46 44 44 45 41 36 40 38 37 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 31 32 29 30 31 33 36 39 37 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 97 93 100 78 47 25 5 39 124 180 164 159 78 200 MB DIV 42 39 55 4 3 34 27 74 49 68 48 30 22 700-850 TADV 10 18 18 11 9 2 -15 -16 -4 25 -12 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 615 734 852 839 753 683 862 781 749 558 816 1149 1462 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.6 27.6 28.9 30.2 32.5 34.6 37.2 40.0 43.0 46.1 49.1 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 71.7 71.3 71.0 70.6 69.4 66.4 61.4 54.8 48.3 42.3 37.3 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 13 13 14 20 27 29 28 24 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 42 61 41 32 34 11 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -7. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 12. 9. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 13. 18. 21. 24. 24. 19. 3. -14. -30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 9( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED