* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 27 29 25 25 22 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 1 5 3 3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 99 97 97 91 68 78 83 104 123 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.9 25.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 140 141 140 138 135 134 132 119 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 55 59 62 63 63 59 55 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 123 154 160 160 130 62 -29 -51 -73 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 36 40 1 -15 23 51 21 -2 -28 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 3 3 -1 -5 -4 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1727 1711 1697 1658 1612 1568 1506 1492 1400 1166 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 126.7 126.1 125.4 124.7 123.9 123.4 123.5 122.9 121.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 5 3 2 2 8 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 7 8 17 16 10 4 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -20. -19. -20. -20. -19. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##