* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 73 68 55 42 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 73 68 55 42 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 75 70 66 56 47 39 32 27 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 7 3 4 7 10 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 5 4 9 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 49 71 88 103 105 136 157 207 215 215 243 235 248 SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.7 23.7 22.6 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 118 114 111 101 89 83 82 82 81 81 82 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 69 70 67 64 59 52 48 44 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 42 41 40 38 35 32 29 26 23 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 111 114 111 97 84 61 27 22 1 9 8 2 4 200 MB DIV 51 42 29 15 -9 13 8 14 10 14 9 -7 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 0 2 5 3 13 7 10 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 794 847 891 941 1004 1159 1288 1279 1278 1234 1192 1204 1250 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.5 28.2 29.4 30.4 30.6 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.5 120.5 121.8 123.0 125.6 127.8 129.8 131.5 132.4 132.6 132.9 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 9 6 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -25. -34. -41. -46. -49. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -33. -37. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -29. -43. -58. -69. -81. -93.-100.-104. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##