* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 77 79 82 81 84 74 60 43 30 31 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 77 79 82 81 84 74 60 43 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 74 76 76 78 79 72 56 46 41 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 2 7 13 8 17 28 50 67 59 57 47 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 9 9 -1 -2 1 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 254 237 140 149 163 206 214 223 218 219 210 210 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 26.0 19.9 16.6 14.3 12.5 12.5 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 135 133 131 135 121 86 77 72 70 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 119 116 115 116 123 113 81 73 69 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -50.1 -49.5 -50.1 -49.5 -49.3 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 46 45 50 41 51 52 60 51 49 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 44 47 42 34 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 81 49 42 24 7 31 102 175 143 186 202 186 192 200 MB DIV 2 -10 27 42 25 46 63 78 73 72 80 79 44 700-850 TADV 9 3 1 0 4 -4 -64 15 -32 -45 -89 -102 -31 LAND (KM) 736 647 568 569 603 692 621 358 711 1167 1477 1261 1089 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.0 33.1 34.2 36.7 39.8 43.7 47.6 51.2 54.1 58.0 62.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.4 71.3 70.4 69.5 65.6 59.2 51.4 43.3 37.2 33.5 28.9 23.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 17 25 32 35 30 23 21 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 12 5 8 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 11. 14. 10. 1. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 11. 14. 4. -10. -27. -40. -39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 7( 15) 8( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)