* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 25 25 10 5 10 16 12 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 100 89 74 73 70 92 117 132 129 130 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 141 139 129 122 116 114 114 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 59 59 59 59 55 52 49 44 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 145 161 156 145 127 -13 -55 -72 -61 -62 -52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 25 17 38 73 36 15 -23 -18 -20 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 0 -2 -8 -5 -2 6 8 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1795 1740 1675 1603 1532 1353 1246 1129 1079 1040 881 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.1 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.0 19.8 20.7 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 126.1 125.2 124.6 123.9 122.4 121.8 121.3 121.3 121.7 121.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 14 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -23. -22. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##