* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 72 67 54 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 72 67 54 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 70 65 55 46 38 31 26 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 1 2 2 9 6 6 7 5 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 1 8 1 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 53 318 334 110 199 282 179 223 204 246 244 248 236 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.7 22.6 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 111 106 101 89 83 82 82 81 80 83 84 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 64 63 62 58 52 45 40 39 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 39 38 36 35 32 28 26 22 18 15 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 105 92 76 67 55 22 8 -10 5 -3 -8 -7 -11 200 MB DIV 19 -13 -21 -6 14 -6 34 12 9 7 0 -3 -6 700-850 TADV -11 -4 1 2 8 4 17 9 8 3 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 929 967 1020 1092 1177 1314 1291 1292 1242 1239 1241 1279 1346 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.9 26.6 28.1 29.4 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 122.0 123.2 124.5 125.8 128.1 130.1 131.6 132.5 132.9 133.0 133.4 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 5 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -28. -36. -42. -46. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -13. -26. -42. -55. -68. -78. -88. -93. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##