* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 58 52 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 58 52 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 62 57 47 39 32 26 22 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 3 4 4 7 8 8 7 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 5 6 9 5 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 1 328 336 44 213 231 205 179 184 178 194 202 223 SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.0 23.4 22.4 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 110 104 97 87 84 83 82 82 84 84 85 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 62 60 59 54 50 42 38 33 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 37 35 34 33 29 27 23 18 14 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 106 93 84 71 56 24 8 2 9 -1 -1 -4 -10 200 MB DIV -4 -15 -6 4 20 7 9 9 6 0 -3 -8 1 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -2 7 11 5 24 8 9 3 2 0 -4 LAND (KM) 995 1051 1120 1193 1280 1351 1333 1311 1244 1267 1347 1399 1427 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.1 23.8 25.2 26.8 28.3 29.5 29.8 29.1 28.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.2 124.4 125.7 127.0 129.2 130.9 132.0 132.6 133.1 133.6 134.1 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 5 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -26. -33. -39. -42. -44. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -21. -27. -32. -37. -40. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -23. -37. -51. -63. -76. -85. -95.-101.-107. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##