* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 71 73 76 72 56 41 34 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 71 73 76 72 56 41 34 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 70 71 73 76 72 57 45 38 35 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 13 9 7 13 27 45 73 62 68 65 54 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 -1 -3 0 4 16 0 -5 -2 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 188 161 196 208 187 213 232 220 202 209 202 218 232 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 26.4 23.0 16.3 15.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 134 133 135 124 98 77 75 69 69 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 117 120 124 115 91 73 71 66 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.7 -50.2 -48.7 -49.0 -49.2 -50.2 -51.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 48 46 38 44 44 44 39 38 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 31 30 31 33 41 48 42 37 38 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 43 30 8 10 30 79 180 169 199 220 196 92 8 200 MB DIV 19 30 -7 10 45 58 71 78 61 69 43 32 42 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 9 5 -38 23 -24 -61 -25 -35 -30 -7 LAND (KM) 534 501 487 630 671 659 477 508 948 1371 1306 958 658 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.7 33.6 35.0 36.3 39.1 42.4 46.1 50.1 52.6 53.7 55.2 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 71.6 71.1 69.0 66.9 60.2 53.3 46.5 40.1 34.6 29.9 24.7 19.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 16 22 26 31 31 30 25 18 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 5 9 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 8. 15. 9. 3. 4. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 2. -14. -29. -36. -51. -60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)