* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 49 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 49 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 55 51 47 40 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 0 6 8 3 6 5 5 5 3 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 2 -2 -2 7 0 8 1 5 4 5 7 SHEAR DIR 353 24 299 242 248 199 178 215 184 191 150 184 213 SST (C) 24.9 24.6 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 105 98 91 84 82 82 83 83 85 86 87 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 60 59 57 53 48 44 39 32 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 35 34 33 31 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 79 72 52 31 3 -6 -1 -13 -25 -19 -25 -17 200 MB DIV -7 -4 5 11 -7 18 10 7 2 2 -4 -10 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 4 7 3 16 9 12 4 1 -2 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1040 1109 1190 1270 1348 1324 1311 1298 1253 1289 1378 1443 1493 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 28.9 29.9 30.1 29.4 29.1 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.4 125.6 126.9 128.2 130.1 131.4 132.3 133.0 133.6 134.2 134.8 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 10 9 7 4 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -22. -27. -32. -34. -35. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -32. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -23. -37. -48. -58. -67. -74. -82. -88. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##