* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 65 67 71 72 62 46 33 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 65 67 71 72 62 46 33 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 64 66 68 71 62 48 38 33 32 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 10 19 35 63 70 67 68 46 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -1 2 11 9 2 -3 -1 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 170 189 196 191 180 240 226 210 208 213 218 239 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 25.3 18.1 16.6 15.2 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 134 132 115 80 75 72 71 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 120 124 124 108 76 71 69 68 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -49.3 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 -48.8 -49.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 47 47 41 41 52 41 37 40 48 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 29 29 30 35 44 45 39 34 35 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR 35 2 8 24 38 143 168 175 183 207 221 214 130 200 MB DIV 25 5 0 52 76 58 101 12 7 23 48 45 27 700-850 TADV 7 6 7 0 -13 12 19 -55 -37 2 -11 6 4 LAND (KM) 512 541 615 735 714 649 413 739 1066 1489 1069 779 427 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.3 34.4 35.8 37.2 40.7 44.7 47.9 50.5 53.5 56.9 59.4 59.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 70.7 69.3 66.6 63.8 56.1 48.6 42.9 38.5 33.1 26.1 19.0 12.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 21 26 31 34 30 22 21 24 24 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 7 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 12. 13. 7. 2. 2. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. -3. -19. -32. -38. -50. -60. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED