* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 40 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 47 40 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 48 43 39 35 29 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 5 8 6 3 6 4 4 5 7 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -2 -2 3 6 2 5 2 5 5 6 6 SHEAR DIR 15 281 251 262 255 170 171 149 144 184 196 226 223 SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.3 22.7 22.3 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 97 90 86 83 84 85 85 88 91 90 89 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 62 60 54 49 43 43 39 36 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 33 32 30 29 27 24 21 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 71 62 47 24 17 -7 -3 -4 -11 -27 -19 -17 -16 200 MB DIV -1 10 16 13 19 25 -1 18 -1 -7 -3 -5 -20 700-850 TADV -3 4 6 0 11 22 7 7 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1093 1171 1262 1321 1316 1325 1343 1312 1331 1402 1545 1613 1627 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.2 28.7 29.7 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.3 125.6 126.9 128.1 129.2 131.2 132.7 133.6 134.2 135.1 136.6 137.3 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 8 5 4 5 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -25. -29. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -29. -42. -54. -65. -72. -76. -81. -86. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##