* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 69 70 73 67 51 38 33 27 20 17 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 69 70 73 67 51 38 33 27 20 17 V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 65 68 69 66 52 41 35 34 36 41 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 12 21 29 48 73 65 56 25 7 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 4 7 16 -5 -4 0 -1 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 213 221 215 211 230 233 219 213 212 194 233 206 245 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 20.5 15.6 13.7 12.5 12.5 11.2 11.2 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 131 125 88 76 73 70 68 66 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 125 126 119 83 73 70 67 65 64 62 61 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -49.7 -49.3 -48.1 -47.9 -47.9 -48.6 -49.7 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 46 40 41 51 45 44 49 57 66 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 40 44 38 35 36 33 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 26 46 90 171 132 186 211 226 215 183 172 200 MB DIV 0 12 45 82 59 94 55 47 89 94 30 8 25 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 -10 -28 29 -45 -71 -75 -39 0 -7 9 LAND (KM) 525 639 701 679 661 403 612 1131 1398 1231 1267 1186 1035 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.7 35.9 37.6 39.3 43.3 47.8 51.8 55.5 58.7 61.6 63.7 63.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 69.0 67.2 63.4 59.6 51.3 44.6 37.9 31.6 28.0 27.1 24.3 21.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 27 35 36 35 31 28 22 17 13 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 18 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -18. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 9. 13. 8. 5. 5. 1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 2. -14. -27. -32. -38. -45. -48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)