* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 08/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 39 43 48 50 54 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 15 11 19 17 22 14 19 20 15 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 252 274 290 282 284 295 257 288 273 317 309 308 273 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 149 145 142 140 143 150 156 162 168 169 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 124 122 120 123 129 135 139 144 149 158 169 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 12 14 12 16 13 16 12 16 11 14 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 50 53 55 57 58 57 56 52 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 -5 8 12 32 36 16 3 -11 -11 9 5 200 MB DIV -9 -2 -11 11 20 3 35 -1 10 -9 0 -12 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -3 0 -2 -4 -6 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 4 LAND (KM) 155 104 52 -3 -54 -147 -255 -378 -499 -437 -363 -250 -134 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.8 99.9 101.2 102.4 103.6 104.7 106.0 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 31 30 28 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 18. 23. 25. 29. 34. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 08/28/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)