* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 38 35 30 26 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 5 7 6 6 4 4 5 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 1 4 1 7 -1 5 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 264 260 271 259 223 226 160 192 189 203 207 219 229 SST (C) 23.8 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 96 89 86 84 84 85 87 89 91 91 93 93 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 59 52 48 42 39 36 33 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 29 27 26 25 22 19 15 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 69 46 24 16 8 -3 12 5 -6 -14 -17 -18 -9 200 MB DIV 8 11 7 14 26 6 33 13 4 -6 -4 0 -10 700-850 TADV 5 5 -1 7 20 11 6 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1178 1260 1320 1311 1319 1345 1322 1364 1445 1525 1596 1678 1742 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.2 24.9 25.8 26.7 28.4 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.0 128.2 129.4 130.6 132.5 133.5 134.4 135.5 136.5 137.4 138.2 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 9 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -16. -19. -22. -22. -21. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -27. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -31. -41. -50. -55. -58. -63. -66. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##