* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 32 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 32 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 33 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 2 3 4 3 3 4 7 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 1 3 3 3 6 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 280 295 291 216 216 141 144 114 158 180 204 230 243 SST (C) 23.3 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 97 90 86 85 84 85 86 88 89 92 94 95 97 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 55 48 42 39 35 33 33 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 27 27 26 23 20 18 16 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 39 31 23 8 13 14 -3 -14 -23 -8 -9 -12 200 MB DIV 21 2 4 23 33 2 -13 7 -3 -1 4 -10 -5 700-850 TADV 2 -4 7 15 18 8 10 2 2 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1290 1346 1354 1356 1371 1349 1368 1416 1467 1546 1648 1745 1827 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.3 28.8 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.5 129.8 130.9 131.9 133.4 134.3 135.2 136.0 137.0 138.2 139.2 140.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 8 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -18. -17. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -29. -41. -51. -58. -61. -64. -65. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##