* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 70 70 62 49 38 33 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 70 70 62 49 38 33 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 67 63 51 40 33 29 30 34 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 28 35 48 76 69 49 15 2 15 26 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 7 9 13 -2 1 3 4 2 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 219 215 222 229 229 224 213 211 207 218 248 260 269 SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.3 24.4 19.7 15.7 13.4 12.3 11.2 11.5 12.2 12.5 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 129 125 109 86 76 73 72 68 64 64 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 119 104 81 73 70 69 66 61 62 63 64 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 -50.1 -49.1 -47.9 -47.4 -48.2 -48.3 -49.3 -51.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 43 40 43 51 45 42 50 63 66 61 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 31 32 37 37 35 33 37 31 27 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 33 48 98 155 170 140 210 228 217 229 135 53 6 200 MB DIV 49 86 71 73 83 45 34 84 59 4 5 2 -10 700-850 TADV 16 -1 -36 -4 51 -13 -99 -110 -16 23 3 -1 13 LAND (KM) 654 650 652 583 351 649 1183 1377 1222 1103 933 765 585 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.9 39.3 41.6 43.8 48.0 52.0 56.8 61.7 63.5 62.2 62.5 63.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 63.5 59.9 55.6 51.3 44.1 37.2 31.2 26.2 22.7 20.3 16.4 10.6 STM SPEED (KT) 26 32 36 39 36 31 30 29 19 7 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 21 CX,CY: 15/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -19. -16. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 5. 8. 2. -2. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. -3. -16. -27. -32. -42. -49. -60. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)