* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982014 08/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 50 54 58 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 18 23 19 18 15 17 17 16 12 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -3 -4 -1 1 -1 -1 -6 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 300 293 289 304 306 269 309 286 309 290 299 253 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 140 143 150 157 162 168 169 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 120 120 122 128 135 139 143 146 150 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 13 12 12 16 13 16 12 15 10 13 8 700-500 MB RH 49 51 53 54 56 56 54 52 50 45 42 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 8 30 36 38 27 6 -15 -12 10 3 7 200 MB DIV 0 8 15 18 1 19 17 -2 -4 -2 -4 -16 0 700-850 TADV -6 1 -3 -9 -5 -7 -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 55 1 -53 -107 -162 -267 -400 -514 -504 -429 -351 -285 -210 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.4 98.9 100.0 101.4 102.6 103.8 105.0 106.2 107.5 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 28 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 08/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 08/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED