* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 73 69 55 44 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 73 69 55 44 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 68 61 47 37 30 28 30 35 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 26 33 41 57 80 71 36 4 4 11 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 7 18 12 -1 1 -3 8 -1 -3 14 1 SHEAR DIR 215 216 234 222 222 224 216 201 142 237 255 255 242 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.3 20.8 17.2 17.1 13.0 12.9 11.6 9.7 11.0 12.8 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 116 91 79 78 72 72 70 63 65 72 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 110 86 76 74 70 70 68 61 63 69 74 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -49.8 -49.6 -48.1 -47.3 -50.1 -50.0 -48.8 -51.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 50 51 37 36 57 64 68 62 69 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 31 36 37 34 36 37 35 29 23 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 43 82 127 156 129 133 207 245 234 253 209 141 -89 200 MB DIV 73 58 59 61 76 9 44 89 13 -12 -4 30 26 700-850 TADV 10 -42 -14 49 21 -46 -89 -18 0 0 0 21 3 LAND (KM) 685 691 688 435 503 961 1503 1141 1085 1090 948 782 575 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 39.1 40.6 43.1 45.5 48.8 52.8 57.2 63.4 66.2 65.0 61.7 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 59.5 55.4 51.1 46.8 39.9 32.7 27.2 22.4 18.1 16.7 17.6 18.8 STM SPEED (KT) 31 35 37 40 34 29 28 30 25 7 11 28 38 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -17. -21. -20. -16. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 5. -1. -7. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. -1. -15. -26. -35. -45. -54. -63. -75. -83. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)