* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 25 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 10 10 8 9 12 13 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 0 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 281 249 227 226 229 206 231 211 213 220 222 235 236 SST (C) 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 86 85 84 85 87 89 91 92 92 94 95 97 99 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 56 53 51 43 40 36 35 33 32 31 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 24 23 22 20 16 14 12 11 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 3 -2 13 13 0 -13 -16 -13 -18 -14 -23 200 MB DIV 7 20 32 7 8 10 1 2 -6 4 -7 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 10 18 20 13 12 9 5 5 3 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1345 1359 1386 1407 1387 1439 1517 1584 1623 1677 1740 1820 1770 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.7 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.8 131.0 132.1 133.0 133.8 135.2 136.7 137.7 138.2 138.8 139.6 140.3 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 3 2 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -19. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -36. -43. -48. -50. -54. -56. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##