* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 76 71 65 49 36 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 76 71 65 49 36 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 74 66 58 45 36 30 29 32 37 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 30 38 52 69 73 56 23 5 14 13 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 14 12 4 1 6 -4 -2 -1 -2 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 215 229 229 222 227 216 218 205 246 224 241 249 247 SST (C) 26.4 24.7 20.9 18.7 18.0 13.8 13.0 12.3 11.6 10.4 10.7 11.7 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 112 90 83 81 74 72 68 66 63 64 68 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 107 86 79 76 71 69 66 64 61 61 65 68 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.2 -50.2 -48.8 -48.0 -47.6 -48.9 -48.9 -49.3 -52.2 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 51 52 47 42 45 57 70 74 63 62 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 30 34 36 36 34 32 37 31 24 20 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 77 127 141 132 132 194 197 211 196 192 96 85 -54 200 MB DIV 50 64 52 68 45 39 92 73 5 -6 17 12 42 700-850 TADV -36 -19 18 -8 14 -74 -81 -10 -17 3 0 -5 11 LAND (KM) 695 623 499 606 840 1385 1129 1046 1089 1092 962 725 282 LAT (DEG N) 39.2 41.1 43.0 45.2 47.4 51.4 56.6 60.3 63.5 65.5 65.3 63.4 59.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 54.2 49.5 45.6 41.6 34.1 27.2 23.5 22.4 19.7 16.4 13.9 9.8 STM SPEED (KT) 38 40 37 35 33 32 27 18 14 8 8 17 23 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 40 CX,CY: 36/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -5. -8. -16. -23. -30. -35. -40. -42. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -19. -20. -18. -15. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 7. 1. -6. -10. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -4. -10. -26. -39. -43. -55. -66. -76. -90. -92. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 2( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)