* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 60 54 42 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 60 54 42 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 61 55 50 40 33 29 29 31 34 35 DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 45 51 70 78 72 49 23 14 30 43 39 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 10 0 -5 -3 6 -3 2 4 0 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 229 229 221 224 219 213 226 222 238 244 233 234 N/A SST (C) 24.8 20.7 18.7 18.0 16.4 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 89 83 81 77 73 72 67 63 68 70 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 84 79 77 74 71 69 64 60 65 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -49.6 -48.7 -48.4 -48.7 -48.9 -50.2 -53.9 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 52 51 48 45 43 57 59 59 52 62 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 29 32 31 30 27 22 29 23 21 15 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 143 138 128 153 210 207 213 202 105 -44 0 N/A 200 MB DIV 46 53 75 52 39 66 107 53 13 9 48 54 N/A 700-850 TADV -6 15 -8 -16 -84 -145 -90 -22 12 1 28 3 N/A LAND (KM) 633 481 591 826 1111 1369 1030 810 729 667 594 536 N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 43.1 45.1 47.3 49.5 53.5 59.2 61.9 62.4 60.8 56.9 54.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 49.8 45.8 41.8 37.8 30.8 23.8 18.0 15.7 16.1 17.8 18.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 36 35 35 32 32 27 12 4 14 17 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 43 CX,CY: 37/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -20. -19. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. 5. -1. -4. -9. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -21. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -10. -16. -28. -42. -44. -57. -64. -77. -91. -94. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.0/ -1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)