* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 57 49 41 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 57 49 41 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 57 51 46 37 32 30 32 36 40 41 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 61 74 78 74 60 24 6 13 24 38 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 -6 -8 -2 5 -7 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 227 225 218 213 209 219 261 307 250 249 244 212 N/A SST (C) 18.6 16.7 16.7 15.5 13.1 13.0 11.9 9.5 9.7 11.2 15.0 17.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 77 77 75 72 74 72 64 64 70 75 76 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 73 73 72 70 72 70 62 62 68 71 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.1 -49.0 -48.6 -47.8 -50.0 -50.9 -50.1 -50.8 -56.5 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 45 43 43 46 63 61 66 53 59 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 30 35 35 33 30 22 33 25 22 18 14 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 121 135 169 220 207 210 208 108 29 -82 -46 N/A 200 MB DIV 51 63 21 32 50 84 16 -12 -40 -24 50 51 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 25 -62 -126 -124 -136 -2 -7 -11 -13 59 24 N/A LAND (KM) 433 580 790 1046 1315 1192 948 970 856 551 306 258 N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.4 46.4 48.3 50.3 52.2 56.2 63.7 66.6 65.9 62.7 55.9 50.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 45.4 42.2 38.8 35.3 28.3 19.0 12.1 9.6 10.4 13.4 13.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 29 29 29 29 36 32 11 10 25 30 25 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 48 CX,CY: 39/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -27. -32. -36. -39. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -15. -17. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 13. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -8. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. 1. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -29. -47. -46. -60. -70. -78. -88. -95. -98. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 67.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.5/ -1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)