* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 08/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 50 57 66 71 77 81 85 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 30 35 43 48 54 40 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 26 31 38 46 57 45 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 18 12 10 17 10 12 9 14 8 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 324 319 333 340 320 344 332 5 6 13 358 8 346 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 152 157 159 157 156 157 161 162 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 143 149 153 152 148 145 144 147 148 147 150 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 8 10 8 10 8 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 68 70 72 75 75 78 77 80 80 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 32 32 33 27 24 24 57 51 84 82 87 200 MB DIV 55 51 38 17 19 48 63 57 45 51 38 48 82 700-850 TADV 9 11 4 -1 -1 -3 0 -7 -2 -6 -4 -6 0 LAND (KM) 247 130 88 77 129 11 -99 66 130 140 49 -80 -202 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 82.2 83.4 84.6 85.7 88.0 90.0 91.9 93.4 94.8 96.1 97.6 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 12 7 8 9 2 33 37 45 52 54 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 29. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 37. 46. 51. 57. 61. 65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 08/30/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)