* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 08/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 46 54 63 67 71 77 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 29 31 39 49 53 47 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 28 27 36 44 52 51 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 12 17 7 15 9 16 11 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 335 6 347 341 5 354 15 8 19 23 24 359 2 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 159 157 158 158 160 160 160 163 167 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 153 154 150 149 146 146 145 146 149 154 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 11 8 11 8 12 9 12 9 700-500 MB RH 70 67 70 71 71 75 75 77 77 78 80 81 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 35 33 27 29 30 58 41 88 82 74 83 200 MB DIV 16 8 18 17 33 39 44 32 43 24 42 66 76 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 -3 -6 0 -9 -3 -6 -4 -7 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 82 135 122 7 -106 4 109 143 83 -25 -151 -272 -304 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.8 86.9 88.1 89.2 91.2 93.0 94.4 95.6 96.8 98.2 99.8 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 66 66 60 39 0 18 27 34 30 53 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 21. 29. 38. 42. 46. 52. 56. 59. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 08/30/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)