* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 08/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 46 55 62 67 70 74 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 27 27 35 44 51 56 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 27 27 33 40 48 57 43 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 16 15 12 16 16 14 13 6 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 358 336 343 2 15 354 27 12 24 15 359 334 350 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 157 157 156 161 165 163 159 163 169 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 152 150 149 146 148 151 148 145 150 155 161 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 72 73 74 75 74 74 77 78 80 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 29 24 20 19 40 36 36 64 57 70 63 200 MB DIV 17 18 27 28 42 55 37 24 25 27 35 70 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -9 -4 -9 -3 -10 -2 -10 -2 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 136 146 15 -67 -90 93 200 171 52 -76 -220 -376 -210 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.5 20.8 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.5 87.7 88.8 89.9 91.8 93.6 95.0 96.5 98.0 99.8 101.6 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 71 70 45 0 27 29 35 42 29 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 37. 42. 45. 49. 53. 55. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 08/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 08/30/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED