* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 09/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 44 51 56 60 64 67 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 31 35 39 45 51 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 30 32 34 38 44 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 17 15 12 17 13 16 9 16 18 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 330 340 358 9 354 1 346 357 327 318 325 321 325 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 158 159 163 161 160 164 170 171 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 146 146 147 150 149 147 150 155 158 163 170 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 9 13 10 14 10 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 76 72 75 74 74 76 77 77 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 13 0 0 10 1 16 16 31 33 18 29 27 200 MB DIV 73 53 34 41 22 17 18 18 41 38 42 22 39 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -5 0 -2 -6 -4 -8 0 3 1 1 -7 LAND (KM) -103 -10 55 95 146 145 34 -98 -250 -373 -253 -200 -130 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.1 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.2 92.1 92.9 93.6 95.1 96.7 98.5 100.3 102.1 103.9 105.4 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 20 26 37 48 29 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 09/01/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED