* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 09/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 53 56 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 33 36 41 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 29 30 32 35 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 16 12 19 14 17 8 10 18 18 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -3 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 344 360 16 354 356 1 346 1 313 314 315 318 303 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.7 31.3 31.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 159 161 163 160 160 166 172 172 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 147 147 148 150 147 147 154 159 168 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 76 73 73 74 76 78 79 78 76 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -1 0 4 -5 11 32 39 62 38 46 41 54 200 MB DIV 52 40 45 35 22 26 25 31 61 54 45 22 36 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -2 -10 0 -6 0 2 4 3 -6 -16 LAND (KM) -23 55 104 150 167 104 -14 -163 -361 -273 -193 -105 -17 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.8 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.9 92.8 93.6 94.3 95.8 97.5 99.4 101.4 103.5 105.5 107.4 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 21 26 37 45 42 7 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 09/01/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED