* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 09/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 39 42 43 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 39 42 43 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 26 27 28 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 28 26 24 21 13 16 20 23 25 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 2 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 40 48 52 53 54 72 70 67 88 81 89 83 87 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 160 158 153 149 147 143 139 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 84 83 80 81 81 81 79 75 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -23 -10 -10 4 16 15 22 22 27 30 39 200 MB DIV 97 71 64 67 64 56 72 37 48 47 49 23 25 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 453 433 404 386 373 364 382 439 501 505 467 452 462 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.7 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.7 111.7 112.7 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 60 69 72 72 68 36 27 21 22 21 14 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 21. 17. 14. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##