* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 09/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 30 34 37 43 45 46 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 17 17 22 16 19 19 27 33 39 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 0 -2 2 -1 4 2 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 4 356 350 355 337 324 320 307 316 318 332 331 N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 171 171 171 171 167 165 165 163 161 162 160 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 162 164 161 150 147 144 140 139 138 136 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 11 12 13 12 11 11 12 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 70 70 71 72 74 74 73 72 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 10 6 -4 10 19 39 50 10 -19 -44 -25 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 25 29 19 24 35 30 67 10 28 23 36 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -15 -8 -2 -7 0 13 13 17 5 0 N/A LAND (KM) 157 228 226 176 98 -10 -163 -296 -334 -359 -435 -446 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 45 56 53 50 59 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 09/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 09/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED