* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 09/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 60 65 66 63 60 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 52 60 65 66 63 60 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 16 15 15 16 20 14 14 14 15 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 61 49 44 57 77 57 73 69 63 71 73 90 111 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 153 153 152 149 147 144 140 134 131 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -50.7 -51.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 83 82 80 81 80 79 77 73 66 60 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 15 17 20 21 22 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 10 17 33 28 39 37 45 37 39 29 25 200 MB DIV 91 61 51 61 82 3 48 7 21 -9 1 -5 9 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 376 351 331 333 345 393 433 362 315 349 344 364 440 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.5 106.9 107.4 107.8 108.8 109.8 110.7 111.8 113.0 114.3 115.3 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 58 38 30 27 26 28 29 26 19 13 7 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 27. 35. 40. 41. 38. 35. 30. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 09/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 09/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##