* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 50 50 52 51 47 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 39 30 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 19 21 16 20 19 30 32 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 353 339 315 314 315 305 310 313 335 331 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 163 157 161 161 159 159 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 162 155 151 145 139 140 138 135 135 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 15 13 14 13 12 11 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 66 66 69 70 72 73 70 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -8 3 0 -8 -2 -18 -13 -21 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 9 12 9 4 13 41 37 30 17 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -4 -2 -7 0 12 10 16 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 308 257 214 132 51 -91 -223 -283 -322 -389 -421 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.5 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.7 26.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 95.0 95.7 96.5 97.3 98.7 100.0 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 61 70 67 40 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 11. 7. 5. 6. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED