* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 09/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 56 62 68 61 60 58 54 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 56 62 68 61 60 58 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 42 43 44 45 46 46 46 46 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 18 17 14 18 18 16 16 7 6 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 54 50 52 61 57 51 68 55 70 43 55 67 96 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 28.8 26.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 152 156 160 161 163 160 152 130 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 82 80 79 79 78 76 75 69 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 18 20 23 20 20 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 11 19 17 43 46 43 56 62 48 36 47 200 MB DIV 94 62 53 68 49 50 31 26 19 15 29 0 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 -2 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 1 5 LAND (KM) 494 437 383 356 332 315 299 240 59 55 61 138 169 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.9 22.4 23.8 24.9 25.8 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.5 107.4 107.5 107.5 107.9 108.4 109.1 110.2 111.5 112.9 114.5 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 6 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 28 27 27 29 41 52 31 16 11 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 17. 13. 13. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 21. 27. 33. 26. 25. 23. 19. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 09/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 09/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##