* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 54 55 57 55 52 48 49 48 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 48 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 19 22 22 22 22 23 30 34 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 1 -1 0 3 0 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 328 302 311 316 289 306 299 328 326 344 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 159 156 155 158 161 160 159 159 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 150 142 138 137 138 138 135 134 134 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 15 13 13 16 11 14 10 14 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 64 68 71 75 74 76 70 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -2 11 0 2 21 5 -16 -14 -22 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 32 43 6 9 46 34 36 29 4 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -1 -5 -3 2 8 17 5 9 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 143 61 -15 -91 -226 -351 -392 -423 -448 -446 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 98.0 98.7 100.0 101.2 101.5 101.6 101.9 101.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 68 42 3 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 3. 4. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)