* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 50 53 54 53 52 51 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 40 42 38 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 38 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 19 19 16 16 19 26 31 35 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 317 326 338 340 338 340 339 347 344 352 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 165 165 166 168 168 167 166 166 165 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 153 148 148 149 149 146 142 141 141 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 11 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 67 68 74 78 77 76 73 68 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 9 6 6 19 26 -7 3 -15 -2 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 17 17 13 22 51 44 56 11 20 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -2 0 -2 5 4 2 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 63 -16 -99 -182 -327 -371 -362 -408 -411 -430 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.3 98.0 98.8 99.6 101.0 102.2 102.4 102.1 102.3 102.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 6 3 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 39 59 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 10. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)