* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 45 46 49 50 49 50 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 18 20 19 20 29 30 37 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 0 0 3 4 1 0 -1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 332 339 329 334 338 339 5 358 1 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 168 167 169 169 167 167 166 167 167 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 150 149 150 151 146 146 145 145 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -51.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 14 9 11 8 13 10 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 75 77 78 76 75 74 72 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 30 25 29 26 18 -21 -35 -30 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 26 25 17 42 39 42 0 25 -18 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 8 4 7 5 1 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 -25 -91 -147 -203 -305 -382 -364 -339 -359 -329 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.8 101.6 101.4 101.2 101.4 101.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 62 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)