* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 22 25 28 29 31 32 36 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 17 16 17 22 30 30 34 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 3 3 3 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 348 330 341 338 357 4 9 5 5 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 169 169 168 167 167 166 167 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 153 154 154 150 148 147 146 147 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 11 10 11 9 12 10 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 77 79 79 77 76 75 73 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 45 52 51 47 -1 -30 -24 -32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 35 35 47 30 34 16 10 18 17 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 7 10 11 5 9 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -105 -177 -249 -311 -372 -283 -297 -321 -294 -309 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.5 100.2 100.8 101.4 102.5 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/03/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)