* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 56 60 62 64 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 48 56 60 62 64 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 51 56 59 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 13 13 13 7 10 14 18 18 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 71 91 99 101 92 102 140 163 187 192 199 191 202 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 128 128 134 134 129 125 123 124 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 131 127 128 134 134 128 123 120 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 63 59 53 48 43 43 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 95 91 95 94 85 72 62 53 42 37 14 6 200 MB DIV 51 36 34 36 14 -25 -12 1 19 11 7 3 2 700-850 TADV -6 0 -1 -2 -2 0 2 6 9 13 15 14 13 LAND (KM) 108 254 392 524 664 954 1245 1550 1859 1915 1714 1546 1421 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 17.8 19.2 20.5 21.9 23.3 26.2 29.0 31.9 34.8 37.8 40.8 43.9 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 3 4 6 17 6 5 8 7 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 40. 42. 44. 45. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/04/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)