* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 33 40 49 54 58 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 33 40 49 54 58 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 38 41 43 46 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 15 14 8 13 13 16 18 18 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 89 101 97 97 113 141 166 191 206 232 235 253 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 128 128 122 118 115 115 117 122 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 126 128 127 119 114 111 109 109 112 114 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 60 60 56 50 50 47 46 41 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 12 14 14 14 15 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 93 90 89 84 79 53 37 19 10 7 -5 -15 -55 200 MB DIV 28 24 15 5 -3 -12 18 18 18 12 14 -4 2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 0 6 8 9 10 10 7 10 5 LAND (KM) 331 444 570 723 881 1194 1522 1849 2141 2115 2067 2078 2124 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.2 25.7 28.6 31.6 34.6 37.3 39.7 41.7 43.1 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 5 3 10 15 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 29. 34. 38. 40. 40. 39. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)