* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 44 49 51 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 44 49 51 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 31 33 35 37 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 13 11 8 16 12 19 21 23 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 1 2 4 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 100 103 101 108 131 145 182 212 211 235 239 265 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 127 126 128 124 118 116 114 118 122 128 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 126 127 123 116 112 109 112 114 118 118 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 62 59 58 53 49 45 45 45 40 39 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 89 83 77 69 63 35 18 5 0 -1 3 -24 -44 200 MB DIV 26 22 19 4 -6 9 25 18 13 25 2 -4 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 4 10 9 11 11 11 8 9 3 LAND (KM) 369 517 678 848 1022 1383 1733 2059 2113 1999 1953 1961 1965 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 20.7 22.3 23.8 25.4 27.0 30.3 33.5 36.5 39.2 41.8 44.0 45.7 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 16 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 2 2 1 0 5 3 6 12 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 24. 29. 31. 33. 33. 32. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/05/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)