* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 58 62 64 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 58 62 64 65 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 36 40 44 48 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 12 12 17 16 15 18 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 3 3 -2 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 92 104 119 141 148 159 164 177 217 198 224 227 231 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 130 127 125 122 118 119 124 127 132 135 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 130 130 127 124 120 115 116 120 123 127 130 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 54 51 48 45 43 41 39 41 41 43 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 16 16 15 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 89 77 71 63 54 46 24 13 12 7 5 -2 -19 200 MB DIV 1 -8 8 2 11 1 24 17 10 8 -17 7 4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 1 4 6 8 11 10 8 10 11 17 LAND (KM) 630 797 967 1138 1310 1665 1997 1920 1747 1583 1489 1404 1296 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.9 26.5 28.1 29.7 33.0 36.1 39.2 42.1 45.2 48.1 50.8 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 3 6 7 3 5 4 3 9 24 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 30. 38. 42. 44. 45. 45. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/05/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)