* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 51 54 54 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 51 54 54 54 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 39 40 41 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 9 8 14 19 18 24 25 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 5 5 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 78 102 81 90 110 168 192 228 242 262 262 266 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 134 129 124 118 117 120 125 132 135 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 134 129 123 115 113 115 117 121 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 54 53 49 47 43 41 41 37 37 36 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 83 81 71 66 59 21 -1 -13 -24 -42 -58 -86 -111 200 MB DIV -21 -13 0 8 2 22 6 4 6 -11 5 -18 2 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 7 7 13 20 18 16 22 8 3 -4 LAND (KM) 885 1027 1175 1337 1503 1839 2111 2003 1946 1968 2018 1990 1948 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.9 21.2 22.5 23.3 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.9 28.4 29.9 31.5 34.6 37.7 40.6 43.1 45.1 46.5 47.3 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 17 15 15 14 12 10 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 14 9 3 2 4 2 9 18 36 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 34. 34. 32. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/05/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)