* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 42 48 50 51 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 42 48 50 51 51 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 31 34 35 37 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 7 10 10 16 16 21 23 23 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 2 0 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 104 114 103 112 139 177 198 229 232 262 257 272 256 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 129 124 121 117 117 122 127 130 133 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 128 123 119 114 112 115 117 118 117 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 48 45 39 37 36 36 36 36 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 73 64 56 53 42 3 -8 -19 -34 -44 -68 -98 -97 200 MB DIV -18 -2 16 1 6 0 1 13 -9 3 -12 -19 -36 700-850 TADV 0 3 8 6 8 19 20 18 18 17 8 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1001 1153 1310 1476 1644 1981 2065 1975 1946 1974 2021 2008 1932 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 17.0 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.2 22.6 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 28.2 29.7 31.2 32.8 35.9 38.9 41.5 43.6 45.2 46.1 46.7 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 10 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 12 10 3 2 3 2 4 12 19 36 36 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/06/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)