* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 38 41 43 43 42 41 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 28 34 38 41 43 43 42 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 28 29 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 14 15 19 20 24 28 24 28 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 122 138 151 156 177 199 209 209 239 245 257 248 235 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 124 121 118 117 119 123 130 132 134 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 123 119 115 113 113 115 118 117 116 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 45 41 36 33 35 35 34 33 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 62 54 43 32 11 -11 -29 -38 -47 -64 -88 -102 -81 200 MB DIV 2 20 4 -1 0 16 16 6 -11 5 -25 -9 -35 700-850 TADV 2 8 8 10 12 22 21 19 23 9 2 -7 -17 LAND (KM) 1133 1300 1471 1639 1809 2148 2047 2000 2021 2069 2078 2037 1909 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.3 22.9 22.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.6 31.2 32.7 34.3 37.4 40.2 42.5 44.2 45.3 46.1 46.6 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 16 16 16 15 13 11 9 6 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 10 5 4 7 3 5 17 32 35 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/06/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)