* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 38 43 47 48 50 48 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 38 43 47 48 50 48 45 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 33 36 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 14 19 19 22 24 20 29 28 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 -4 -6 -6 -9 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 163 166 176 193 198 217 215 236 227 238 237 236 221 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 117 117 120 124 127 132 133 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 114 113 113 114 116 117 119 118 119 120 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 45 42 39 36 35 32 32 32 31 31 32 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 15 4 -4 -22 -35 -42 -52 -71 -87 -73 -64 200 MB DIV 5 3 -2 10 11 16 7 -11 0 -32 -3 -18 -1 700-850 TADV 9 9 10 17 20 20 21 21 11 8 -3 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1503 1671 1839 2007 2096 1975 1894 1878 1908 1895 1845 1721 1562 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.5 33.1 34.6 36.1 37.7 40.5 42.9 44.9 46.4 47.5 48.5 49.7 51.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 7 6 3 8 11 22 27 32 36 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 18. 22. 23. 25. 23. 20. 15. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/06/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)