* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 09/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 35 37 38 36 32 30 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 35 37 38 36 32 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 16 19 19 22 24 24 30 31 35 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -2 -4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 173 186 183 197 210 215 235 227 231 226 241 238 227 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 116 116 118 123 127 131 134 136 137 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 112 111 113 115 117 117 117 118 121 125 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 40 35 35 34 33 33 31 32 30 30 31 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 9 -2 -15 -28 -40 -53 -61 -65 -70 -54 -44 -18 200 MB DIV 16 13 14 4 16 17 -16 -2 -8 21 -26 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 12 21 24 24 21 22 24 8 -2 -5 -11 -6 1 LAND (KM) 1740 1908 2077 2086 2041 1983 2018 2077 2138 2098 1983 1803 1580 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.5 20.9 22.1 23.0 23.2 23.0 22.6 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.3 36.8 38.1 39.5 41.9 43.5 44.7 45.3 46.1 47.3 49.0 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 14 14 11 9 7 4 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 7 5 3 5 12 24 32 34 39 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7. 5. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 09/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 09/07/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)